The Tip of the Iceberg?

With European Union (EU) reporting that, "(T)he strain of bird flu found in Turkey is the same deadly H5N1 strain experts fear could one day spark a pandemic," and reports in this morning's headlines that EU officials are meeting to discuss what to do, it's both a good and bad a sign. We're finally doing what RiSci has been trying to get the world to do for awhile now... but at the same time, have we started too late?

In truth, no one knows for sure. This is why it continues to be vitally important that more people join the battle, be aware, and make a donation to One Intent's 20 x 10,000 Campaign. RiSci continues to gain funding for their programs, but in the short-term, they need to bridge the gap until that corporate and government money is made available. This short-term funding will allow a non-profit, non-partisan entity like RiSci to: continue pushing for enough medicine to be developed and fairly distributed; ensure that businesses, governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the media, and the public are all aware of the threat at hand and what needs to be done; and enable co-ordination networks to be built for all countries around the world, so action plans and preparedness initiatives can progress faster and with more efficiency.

– Amitav Dash, d2 Group (Flu Preparedness Team)

Southern Exposure: Bird Flu Awareness Reaches Southern U.S. Town

I was pleased to see today's headline N.C. flu plan needs checkup and detailed article on the Bird/Avian Flu in our local paper, "The News & Observer" of Raleigh, North Carolina. The story indicated that the national attention to the growing pandemic threat is now stirring action, inspiring those who can do what's necessary to make preparations. State officials, major hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies are now rapidly getting involved, taking steps in preparation for a possible outbreak. They cite lessons on disaster preparedness from the experience on Hurricane Katrina and a SARS case quarantine in Orange County in 2003.

Also, recently, the Avian Flu was featured on our local TV news channels. It is worthy to note that North Carolina is taking these steps ahead of America's national plan (which is due to be released at the end of the month). Hopefully, this action will influence other states (and countries) to do the same.

– Carolyn G. Wallace, One Intent (Flu Preparedness Team)

On the Funding Front

Just wanted to give you all some good news in the face of the all the worry. RiSci just received another small grant for the Communications Program from the Sloan Foundation. The Communications Program is RiSci's 4th program (Global Policy Communications) in the key 4 Pandemic Preparedness Initiatives. It is being done in partnership with Foreign Affairs, Nature, the Asia Society, NTI, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. This will also likely see ties to the new International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza (IPAPI) recently announced by U.S. President Bush at the UN. It means the Communications Program is well funded, and we are thankful of what this will allow us to accomplish.

Now, of course, we still need to fund the other three initiatives – the Vaccines and Anti-Virals Programs, the Global Preparedness Plans, and the Public Health Communications Network.

Thank you to everyone who has and continues to inspire individuals to come forward and become part of the solution – and thanks to those people who do come forward as well, it's not easy being the first person to venture into the unknown.

– Dan Sharp, RiSci (Flu Preparedness Team)

A Gathering Storm Sheds New Light...

The momentum in bird flu preparedness took on new steam with the draft for a government-wide planin the case of a flu pandemic; and with last week's announcement that research teams have deciphered the genetic sequence of the devastating 1918 influenza virus.

While all of this may highlight our lack of preparedness, at least we can start to do something about it.

The draft of the U.S. government's final plan, which was leaked to The New York Times, reports that a large outbreak beginning in Asia would likely reach the U.S. within a few months, or even weeks, due modern travel patterns. A worse case scenario might see 1.9-million dead and 8.5-million hospitalized.

More than ever, governments and scientists are aware of the daunting scale of preparations we need to undertake. And, with preparations only just beginning, individual contributions truly count right now. One Intent's 20 x 10,000 campaign was launched to help the Royal Institution World Science Assembly (RiSci) urgently accelerate its key role in converting the growing awareness and concern into quick, tangible action. Some of the actions that RiSci will promote include: research; and increasing the capacity to develop, manufacture, and fairly distribute required medicines (which, at the moment, as we all know, are in woefully inadequate supply).

RiSci has been invited by leading NGOs and governments to help them reach businesses, scientists, and other NGOs, as well as the media and you the public at large, to ensure necessary preparations are undertaken in earnest; and to build co-ordination networks between countries. Right now, two-thirds of all countries have no pandemic action plans, and most of those who do, have implemented little or no steps in their plan.

The blogosphere had dedicated October 3rd - 9th as Pandemic Flu Awareness Week, but let's not limit ourselves to only being aware for a single week. Please check back here for regular updates, and help spread the word to those you care about, so they will be on the lookout for news as well, can join the battle, and, most importantly, can be safe and ready too.

Other blogs you can visit are:

• Crawford Kilian's H5N1
• The Flu Wiki
• Effect Measure
• Melanie Mattson's Just a Bump in the Beltway
• Epidemica
• Avian Flu

– Norma Owen, Avadon; and Carolyn G. Wallace, One Intent (Flu Preparedness Team)

Pandemic of Yesterday Meets Pandemic of Today

Today's New York Times headline article (and the lead piece on last night's NBC News) on the reconstruction of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic is frightening, yet also heartening. With the confirmation of what many had suspected – that what has been referred to as the most devastating epidemic in recorded history was in fact "a bird flu that jumped directly to humans" – we have put a real face on the pandemic that we are facing. That epidemic, known as the “Spanish Flu,” killed between 25 and 50 million people worldwide (exact numbers were never known as some estimates were as high as 100 million). Remember, this occurred at a time when world travel was nowhere near as simple and prevalent as it is today (although WWI did help to spread that virus and give us a glimpse of what we face now). On the plus side, our ability to counter a virus of this magnitude has greatly improved – but our response to the threat and our cynicism may not have.

While those of us warning about the growing threat no longer seem like “Chicken Little,” all too many of us still expect that governments will do something on their own to stop this... Don’t wait, please join the battle (One Intent’s 20 x 10,000 Campaign), and help us help the world be better prepared to protect itself. We can make a difference.

– Amitav Dash, Managing Director, d2 Group (Flu Preparedness Team)

National Geographic and The Daily Show Cover the Pandemic

I am consistently amazed at how a situation can go from being almost completely ignored by the media at one point in time, to then being everywhere at once in the very next.

While serious journalism continues to key on the pandemic – check this month's cover of National Geographic, and their article on the Next Killer Flu – the concern has also reached into popular culture as well. While "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" is usually a little bit ahead of the crowd when it comes to being aware, it was still especially important for all of us to witness Stewart asking his guest, Dr. Irwin Redlener, Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, whether or not we were prepared for the pandemic.

Of note to RiSci followers is the knowledge that Dr. Redlener is actually one of our key advisors. He not only participated in our global workshop, but emailed me yesterday from Louisiana, where he continues his vital work on the Katrina recovery, to confirm his assistance in designing our Global Communications Program. My upcoming posts will not only cover the Global Communications Program, but will report on: 1) RiSci having obtained funding for this program; and 2) The intensifying need to enlist funding support from the public and from businesses for our other three programs. Stay tuned... and stay prepared.

– Dan Sharp, President, RiSci (Flu Preparedness Team)

Financial Times Highlights Pandemic Concerns

Well, it appears that the media frenzy is just beginning. This morning, the FinancialTimes.com published an article on the growing concern for an avian flu pandemic. They quoted the director of the Center for Disease Control, who stated that more needs to be done to prepare the world for this potential pandemic, and that the risk for a pandemic is unusually high.

With the announcement made by U.S. President Bush last week, this is, I’m sure, the first of many more statements by science, business, government, and public policy leaders, as well as the first of many media articles.

If you are interested in reading the full text of the article, please click this link: World 'unprepared' for flu pandemic

If you are concerned by what you’ve read and what you’ve been hearing, please let us know your thoughts.

– Dan Sharp, President, RiSci (Flu Preparedness Team)